Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Pirouetting InTo The Past

Our global challenges will not get solved when the United States and Russia are doing clumsy pirouettes on regional stages like two overweight pensioned prima ballerinas reminiscently reliving earlier performances.

Cooperation will more effectively respond to our global challenges than pirouettes into the past.


UPDATED 06/29/2017 DIA, Russia Military Power Report 2017
UPDATED 06/08/2017 CSIS, The Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe  (CrossCountry Survey)
UPDATED 04/17/2017 SmithsonianMag, Vladimir Lenin’s Return Journey to Russia Changed the World Forever

UPDATED 11/21/2016 Wikipedia, Truman Doctrine and Turkish Straits crisis (past is prologue albeit with a hint of irony ... Reuters, China says would consider Turkish membership of security bloc)


UPDATED 10/14/2016 HI, Cold War Archive
UPDATED 07/30/2016 LSE, Cold War Studies Project
UPDATED 07/30/2016  gBooks, The Cambridge History of the Cold War, Volume 1 (also, Volume 2 and 3)


UPDATED 06/06/2018 Reuters, In Europe, Mattis Is In Familiar Spot: Calming U.S. Allies and ERR, Experts: NATO's Focus In Baltic Region Must Be On Reinforcement and ERR, NATO Needs Joint Forces Command In The Baltics Says Latvian Defence Chief and NATO, NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force - Can The VJTF Give New Elan To The NATO Response Force? (pdf download 1.3M) and NATO, Brussels Summit 2018 and BNN, Putin In Austria Urges For EU's Harmful Sanctions To Be Lifted

...kudos to Austria...the United States et al. must maintaining or increasing Russia sanctions, if necessary (and diplomatic dialogue) to compel compliance with the Minsk Protocol...

UPDATED 04/15/2018 Reuters, Russia's Putin Predicts Global 'Chaos' if West Hits Syria Again and Newsweek, Putin, Who Invaded Ukraine And Sent Troops To Syria, Complains The World Is 'Becoming More Chaotic'

...really, what proof do you have for such an absurd assertion...beyond that the chaos is probably staged by America, Britain, Germany, France, Ukraine, et al!..."action speak louder than words"...

Publicly release OPCW's full unrestricted report. Russia's assertion that it will not accept OPCW's final report (or responsibility) unless given access to the Russian assassins' targets is not relevant.

UPDATED 03/28/2018 Reuters, With NATO, EU Sets Out Plan to Enable Faster Troop Movement Across Europe and Reuters, U.S., EU to Expel More Than 100 Russian Diplomats Over UK Nerve Attack and Reuters, Russia Says It Will Respond in Kind to West's Expulsions and WP, The Latest: Trump Calls UK’s May on Expelled Russian Envoys and RNZ, PM's Spy Comments Make NZ 'a Laughing Stock'

No spy to expel, no problem...just send a dangle to the Russian Embassy...then expel the responding "diplomat"...or perhaps our nation will expel another Russian "diplomat"  (i.e. 60 plus one) for New Zealand's many years of support?

UPDATED 03/02/2018 Republic, В демонстрации новой ракеты на послании Путина использовали анимацию из фильма Первого канала 2007 года and Twitter, Теперь показывают мультик про систему "Кинжал". Такой, помню, в первой версии игры Red Alert был

Amb. Michael McFaul, Susan Del Percio and Max Boot discuss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russia had an intercontinental ballistic missile that renders defense systems 'useless' and Trump's lack of public response.

UPDATED 01/26/2018 SeaPower, NATO Eyes New Atlantic Command to Strengthen European Maritime Capabilities
UPDATED 01/18/2018 CNN, Russian Spy Ship Heading Toward US

UPDATED 12/24/2017 Forbes, Angela Merkel Tries Pressuring Vladimir Putin On Ukraine War

It is unclear why Putin thinks he has a right to menace Ukraine and Ukrainians or perpetuate Russia's long history of inflicting misery† on them, then indignantly respond when they resist?

† The misery and mayhem of the Holodomor resulted in the mutilation of many Ukrainians by starvation.

UPDATED 12/06/2017 Brookings, The Kremlin’s Latest Crackdown on Independent Media and BBC, Russia Election: Putin to Run Again for President and NATO, Ministers affirm support for Georgia and NATO, Meetings of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs

UPDATED 10/30/2017 TASS, Fourth Borei-class submarine to be floated out in November
UPDATED 10/29/2017 WashingtonExaminer, Angus King: First charges under Robert Mueller Russia probe 'really just the beginning'

Senator Angus King could not be more wrong when he asserts that Russia is taking advantage of our free press and our open society and driving divisions:

"...They have discovered a way to turn the strengths of our country and the West against ourselves," he said. "I call it geopolitical jiu-jitsu, where they're taking advantage of our free press and our open society and driving divisions, and there's no question that they did that in 2016 in a big way."--Examiner quoting King
It is not our free press and open society that are the problems, they are the solution and our nation's greatest strengths!  The problem is an untrustworthy and dysfunctional Congress held in contempt by a mostly uniformed citizenry, which is therefore susceptible to a relatively simple and transparent foreign adversary's propaganda campaign!

Militarists and untrustworthy leaders cannot provide effective solutions to propaganda campaigns! An unstable, unfit, unwell, and unbalanced "new" alt-white-house willing to exploit or actively aid such a propaganda campaign for personal gain significantly exacerbates the problem!

UPDATED 09/14/2017 Reuters, Russia's Zapad war games unnerve the West and AP, Stoltenberg, Estonian PM Comment on Zapad Exercise and DW, NATO voices skepticism over size of Russia's Zapad military exercise and ECFR, So far from god, so close to Russia: Belarus and the Zapad military exercise (pdf) and BB, Rapid Trident 2017 - Equipment and Personnel Arrive in Ukraine B-roll and USArEur, Exercise Rapid Trident

A calm and confident NATO is good. A NATO unconditionally committed to ensuring no nation(s) alters any recognized borders through force, intimidation or menacing behavior is best.

UPDATED 06/28/2017 PBS, LIVE: Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Russian interference in European elections and U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence; Open Hearing: Russian Intervention in European Elections, including witness list and opening statements.

UPDATED 06/07/2017 AP, Clapper: Russia Meddling Bigger than Watergate

UPDATED 03/30/2017 C-SPAN, Senate Intelligence Committee, Russian Interference [aka "active measures"] in the 2016 Election and Its Capabilities to Impact Elections

An early start to Senate hearings after the House Intelligence Committee Chairman immolated the committee's credibility and immobilized its current work.

In addition to the Senate hearings Congress must launch a select committee, commission, and special prosecutor to investigate Russia's active measures effecting our 2016 Election.

UPDATED 03/23/2017 Vox, From Spy to President: The rise of Vladimir Putin

UPDATED 03/20/2017 C-SPAN, House Select Intelligence Committee, Russian Election Interference FBI Director James Comey and NSA Director Admiral Michael Rogers

UPDATED 03/10/2017 EurasiaNet Op-Ed, Russia: The 1917 Revolutions and the Ambiguity of Post-Soviet Identity

UPDATED 02/27/2017 NewYorker, Trump, Putin, and the New Cold War
UPDATED 02/17/2017 Courant, Coast Guard Tracking Russian Spy Ship Near Submarine Base In Groton and Russian Spies Off The Coast Are Nothing New For An Old Sub Hand and ABCNews, Russian spy ship 30 miles from US Navy sub base

Our media should not combine reports of Russia loitering and snooping in international waters with Russia's possible technical (or worse?) violation of the INF Treaty! The later activity, if accurately reported and accurately verified2 (i.e. deployment of GLCM launcher and violating missile), is orders of magnitude more significant than a bunch of Russian spooks harmlessly floating off Long Island recording signals and images, generally being a nuisance!

A bad attempt to knockoff a good "Saturday Night Live" skit?

UPDATED 07/01/2017 Army, Atlantic Resolve and Reuters, Baltic states seek more NATO help ahead of Russian exercise and Reuter, Russia calls NATO moves in Baltics, Poland and Germany a Threat: RIA and Reuters, Factbox: Minsk agreement on Ukraine

Operation Atlantic Resolve is President Obama and Europe routinely engaging with our NATO Baltic allies before leaving office.

Wonder how our "new" alt-white-house and comrade Putin or is it nemets Adamov are going to work this into their active misinformation-disinformation campaign3?

UPDATED 01/27/2017 SI, Fast Attacks and Boomers: Submarines in the Cold War
UPDATED 12/17/2016 USNI, Dec. 14, 2016 executive summary of the Navy’s 2016 Force Structure Assessment
UPDATED 12/16/2016 USNI, Navy Wants to Grow Fleet to 355 Ships; 47 Hull Increase Adds Destroyers, Attacks Subs and Navy, Secretary of the Navy Announces Need for 355-ship Navy

The Navy's 2016 Force Structure Analysis (FSA) did not come with the SecNav's FSA announcement—for now all we can say is our navy is asking Santa Claus to deliver a lot of Christmas presents! Even Santa Claus is constrained by budget and funding levels!

UPDATED 12/02/2016 Telegraph, Vladimir Putin says Russia wants to normalise relations with US

A Security Council vote is not required to steadfastly support or increase and extend the sanctions imposed on an infandous (odious beyond expression) government.

Normalized relationship with the United States must require Russia's compliance with the Minsk II protocol. Changing or maintaining national borders by use of force or an infinite variety of thuggery is a twenty-first century anathema and affront to all peaceful nations.

UPDATED 11/23/2016 WP, These maps show how Russia has Europe spooked
UPDATED 11/21/2016 WT, Russia withdraws from International Criminal Court after being called out over Crimea invasion
UPDATED 10/13/2016 CSM, Gorbachev calls for peace: Is there a path forward? and  IPI, Interview with Mikhail Gorbachev at the Reykjavik Summit

“Worst Thing” Collapse of Trust Between Major Powers" --Mikhail Gorbachev--

Even worse than mistrust between nations, is the twenty-first century chaos created when any nation's government seeks to impose ad hoc changes to international rules or order by threat, intimidation, force, and coercion, 

UPDATED 08/19/2016 UPI, Russia's military buildup in Arctic plays into global strategy

The sooner all global citizenry live under representative type governments, the sooner nations can get on with doing things that matter!

UPDATED 07/31/2016 CSIS, Undersea Warfare in Northern Europe and CSIS, Report "Undersea Warfare in Northern Europe" (PDF 1.6M) and The Cold War: In Enemy’s Depth - The Submarine War and Cold War Spy Secrets Under the Sea1



1. The turbulent and noisy bubble bursts called cavitation releases enough energy to pit the surface of a polished propeller blade, which further disrupts laminar flow and decreases propeller efficiency (η0)*.

UPDATED 01/19/2017 Some militarists have long speculated that cavitation might change a relatively slow-moving hydro-body into a faster-moving aero-body by enveloping the hydro-body in bubbles (i.e. supercavitition).

A modern sonar women might wonder why you would spend millions on supercavitation to continuously broadcast your submarine's position when you could just turn on the active sonar and ping away?

Modern submarines will typically use pump-jet propulsors (i.e. a shrouded propeller).

* See A.H. Techet, Hydrodynamics for Ocean Engineers: Propellers: Propeller Performance Characterization, 2004 for an introduction to propeller performance.

2. UPDATED 09/16/2017 FAS, NASIC Removes Russian INF-Violating Missile From Report

 UPDATED 02/18/2017 NATO Defence Ministers take steps to strengthen the Alliance and NATO, Doorstep Statement and Der Spiegel, The Greatest Threat to Security Since WWII (by John Kasich) and Reuters, Trudeau to Trump: NATO is About More Than Spending and NATO Secretary General doorstep statement at the Munich Security Conference, 17 FEB 2017 and NATO Secretary General, Press Conference at Meetings of Defence Ministers, 16 FEB 2017 and  NATO Secretary General, Press Conference at Meetings of Defence Ministers, 16 FEB 2017, 2/2 and AP, Pence: 'We Must Hold Russia Accountable' and VOA, US Defense Secretary Mattis Tells NATO Collective Defense a Bedrock Commitment

UPDATED 07/14/2017 PBS, Inside Russia's Propaganda Machine

UPDATED 09/14/2017 Bloomberg, Mueller Probe Has ‘Red-Hot’ Focus on Social Media, Officials Say and AtlanticCouncil, #DisinfoWeek Countering the Hybrid-Tactic of Strategic Misinformation and Disinformation and Stanford, Digital Disinformation Forum and Facebook, National Democratic Institute

(note: several  problems with the video's sound)

Countering misinformation and disinformation is about more than our "new" alt-white-house, but any American campaign to counter these strategic hybrid-tactics will fail without understanding and acknowledging when such tactics are used against our own citizenry.

Stated differently efforts by Senator Rob Portman to minimize the very active misinformation and disinformation campaign being run by our "new" alt-white-house against our citizenry is itself both misinformation and disinformation!

A nascent effort to comprehensively understanding "influence" campaigns is the The German Marshall Fund: The Game Has Changed: Russian Interference and the Alliance for Securing Democracy. The effort tracks an estimated 600 Twitter accounts thought linked to Russia's misinformation and disinformation efforts (The Methodology of the Hamilton 68 Dashboard and Hamilton 68 Dashboard).

UPDATED 11/02/2017 GMF, Extremist Content and Russian Disinformation Online: Working with Tech to Find Solutions

UPDATED 10/21/2017 FB, Facebook to Provide Congress With Ads Linked to Internet Research Agency and FB, Hard Questions: More on Russian Ads

Originally Published July 26, 2016; Last Updated June 06, 2018; Last Republished June 06, 2018:

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