Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Friday, September 18, 2020

The Kraska Story - Prescient Or Fairytale Or Propaganda

Originally Published December 31, 2009; Last Updated September 18, 2020; Last Republished September 18, 2020:

During our period of shrinking budgets; finite resources; prioritized threats; and difficult choices we can expect and should welcome passionate persuasive augments by our military components and their advocates. But, passionate persuasion must not yield to disjointed hyperbolic speculation or propaganda such as that expressed in How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015.

Kraska spins his speculative China hegemon fairytale out of Erickson and Yang's recent article on China's investigation of using a conventional terminally controllable tactical reentry vehicle as a "carrier killer". The fairytale operationalizes Yang and Erickson's carrier killer2, liberally sprinkles in a "handful" of Chinese carriers (one couldn't be built by 201518), shakes in some "quieter than Los Angeles-class" diesel Song submarines, adds a decade late pinch of "stealthy" AIP Yuan submarine, and casts a paralyzing spell over all counter measures, defenses, and ASW operations3.

The Chinese Communist Party's desire for unification under communist party rule, expansive Law of the Sea Convention interpretation, and Southeast Asia hegemonic aspirations seem pretty clear. What's unclear is whether the Chinese Communist Party leadership seeks any war with the United States to address these issues, much less the War of 2015.

Unfortunately, Kraska's fairytale4 does little to help clarify these issues. Wonder how the Kraska fairytale changes if we assume China's increased military budgets have more to do with domestic control than preparation for the War of 2015 with its biggest trading partner and debtor.

∳ UPDATED 09/10/2018 ...added to this ordinary list is an extraordinarily unstable, unfit, unwell, and unbalanced "new" alt-white-house et al., which is devoid of guidance or leadership capabilities...fortunately the new list item does not appeared to have negatively affected SecDef or SecNav et al...


UPDATED 11/13/2017 CSIS, China's Ballistic Missiles and CSIS, China Missile Types
UPDATED 08/04/2016 RAND, War with China:Thinking Through the Unthinkable

Well, at least Kraska has some company, a RAND white paper imaginatively describing four (severe, mild, short and long) scenarios of war (skirmishes?) with China, including some sensible recommendations.

Phew!, the "A2AD threat" is pushed out to 2025!

UPDATED 04/06/2016 FAS, Questions About The Nuclear Cruise Missile Mission
UPDATED 03/19/2016 PCA, The Republic of Philippines v. The People's Republic of China
UPDATED 02/05/2016 CRS, Navy Lasers, Railgun, and HypervelocityProjectile: Background and Issues forCongress and Wikipedia, DF-21#D

UPDATED 01/16/2016 CSIS, Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization in 2015: A Comparative Analysis

UPDATED 09/21/2015 RAND, The U.S.-China military scorecard : forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power, 1996-2017 (5M pdf)

Includes an interesting discussion on the so called "carrier killer", DF-21D CEP. (see footnote 20 on confusion between DF-21C and DF-21D variants)16. Includes mention of the multiple explicit variables (e.g. kinematics, in-flight search, identification, tracking, and data-link) related to CEP.

When reading statements like:
"As of early 2013, the system had been repeatedly tested over land, though it has not yet been tested against targets at sea." (pg  165).
It's useful to remember that while our navy is capable of performing fantastic feats, even our most capable and intrepid admirals are unlikely to sail a carrier strike group over land.

UPDATED 12/12/2013 Carnegie/Pew, U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project 2012 General Public Survey Data

Survey data are necessary (kudos to Carnegie/Pew) but insufficient to understand the first principles that lead to conflict avoidance.

It does not seem particularly novel for a survey to discover that a collection of individuals (nation) apply the cultural identity they learn. Unusual would be the survey that discovered a collection of individuals that assert they prefer applying a continually changing cosmopolitan cultural identity to an "exceptional cultural identity"!

Chinese military officers, at all levels (in addition to Chinese military scholars) must participate in future Carnegie/Pew US-China Security Perceptions Project surveys. Saluting expressions of "exceptionalism" will not produce the cosmopolitan changes required for close cooperation between China and America.

Our global problems are too ginormous to waste much time saluting reciprocal and meaningless expressions of "cultural exceptionalism" by either American or Chinese leaders!

UPDATED 08/06/2012 China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress Mostly a restatement of previously known open source data—more supporting source documentation is needed for the many speculative assertions.

Time-series overheads of the various Chinese shipyards are minimum de rigueur for today's meaningful open source analysis. Time-series overheads of keel block formation are potentially interesting—a keel on the blocks is better—a ship under construction is best.

What's NOT happening in the various shipyards is also interesting (e.g. a rusting keel), even when efforts to conceal activity are undertaken, as they routinely are.

Discussion of the DF-21D begins at page 57-67 (document page, not reader page). When, if ever, China wants to deploy the DF-21D maybe we can conduct a joint exercise on an American autonomously operated and defended terminal target vessel?

We save the cost and guesswork of developing a terminally controllable reentry vehicle—China saves the cost and guesswork of developing a defended terminal target vessel)?
UPDATED 08/03/2012 Defense of Japan Annual 2012 White Paper The overview is pithy and informative.
"...As such, the international security environment remains complex and uncertain.

Under such a security environment, it is also increasingly important for countries with common interests in the resolution of issues to work together, as it has become extremely difficult  for one country to deal with issues confronting the international community and countries gain shared benefits by ensuring regional and global peace, stability and prosperity through the establishment of a more stable international security environment...."
Not only has it become extremely difficult for one country to deal with has become undesirable and counterproductive.

Notwithstanding the rocky relations among some nations all nations must align their interests on a common core or face alienation by the community of nations.

Many nations' leaders assert the illusion that their nation possesses an immutable or hyphenated core (e.g. Chinese-core; American-core;  Russian-core; Korean-core etc.). The sooner nations abandon this absurdity the sooner they will converge on a sustainable core common to all nations.

UPDATED 07/13/2011 Wikipedia, Ships of the People's Liberation Army Navy.


UPDATED 12/01/2018 CSIS, China's Power: Up for Debate (3rd)

UPDATED 06/05/2017 NatComUSChinaRelations, Leaders Speak: PACOM Commanders

UPDATED 10/21/2016 ABC, China Rising: The challenges for Australia as China and the US struggle for supremacy in Asia and Reuters, U.S. warship challenges China's claims in South China Sea and Navy, US, UK, Japan Navies Commit to Increase Cooperation

Admiral Dennis Blair articulates the generally accepted view that the reefs, shoals, rocks, and islands in the South China Sea are of little military importance (i.e. military duty on these geological protrusions during a war is career ending).

Joint military exercises with Australia in the South Sea are unnecessary to communicate United States or Australias et al's. understanding and resolve that our global oceans, adjacent seas and international waters are and will remain freely navigable by nations, big and small, in accordance with international laws and customs.

UPDATED 10/13/2016 Seventh Xiangshan Forum and Dialogue— Xiangshan Forum 10/12/2016; CCTV



UPDATED 10/03/2016 DAR, CNO Admiral John Richardson at International Seapower Symposium Twenty-Two and CSIS, Maintaining Maritime Superiority with Admiral John Richardson


The CNO confidently articulates South China Sea normalized policy and makes a persuasive case for substituting the acronym "A2AD" with a detailed discussion of dynamic integrated threat analysis and response.

Stated differently, it's meaningless to discuss South China Sea maritime and related issues in the context of an imagined, impenetrable, and ubiquitous "force field" called "A2AD".

The presentation (CSIS) ends with an important comment by the CNO, saying that he and his Chinese counterpart, Wu Shengli, have rules to prevent the many stakeholders' miscalculations (hand holders in chief, first) and unintended armed conflict (warriors in chief, second). Kudos to the CNO and Command of the PLA Navy!

UPDATED 09/22/2016 CSIS, The Modern Origins of China's South China Sea Claim

The speaker's interesting book: The South China Sea The Struggle for Power in Asia, Yale Press (2014) subsumes the main presentation (Q&A follows).

UPDATED 07/25/2016 CSIS, Military Modernization and Capacity Building (i.e. the all nations pivot to South China Sea; also CSIS, Naval Innovation and Capabilities: Charting the Future, Today and Undersea Warfare in Northern Europe)

UPDATED 07/19/2016 CCTV, Navy Chiefs from China, US Hold Talks on South China Sea

Disputes often require many patient and respectful exchanges before solutions begin to emerge.

Admirals Richardson(L) and Wu
UPDATED 07/15/2016 CCTV, Ban Ki-moon Calls for Peaceful Resolution of South China Sea Issue (SCS statement begins at approximately 15:00 of later and longer CCTV video below) and UN NewsCentre, In China, Ban highlights country’s leadership on sustainable development, climate change and CCTV, Media Briefing, U.S.-China Dialogue on South China Sea July 06, 2016 and XinHua, Spotlight: China, U.S. need to manage differences over South China Sea: experts, Dialogue on South China Sea issue held in Washington D.C. and BeijingRev, Full Text of Dai Bingguo's Speech at China-U.S. Dialogue on South China Sea Between Chinese and U.S. Think Tanks and CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeace, U.S.-China Dialogue on the South China Sea Audio  Former state councilor Dai Bingguo (in Mandarin) and former deputy secretary of state John D. Negroponte discussion of the situation in the South China sea ahead of the July 12 arbitration ruling between the Philippines and China.

(Carnegie Endowment Conference)-&-(CSIS Sixth Annual SCS Conference)

The foundation for Foreign Minister Wang Yi's implicit assertion that a nation requires consent from another nation before filing an international arbitration case requires clarification, at best or ignored as a relic from an ancient imperial palace, at worst. (Joint Press Conference Report at UN Radio, China urged to "create space" for civil society and a later longer video from CCTV, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon Joint Press Conference)

UPDATED 07/15/2016 CSIS, The South China Sea Arbitration


UPDATED 06/28/2016 WSJ, South China Sea Ruling: A Lesson From the Great Wall

The video asserts that China's hawks would like to turn the South China Sea into a lake. China's hawks would like to turn the South China Sea in to a convenient bastion and be the only economic beneficiary of any natural resources it contains has.

China and the United States will need mature and experienced leadership to confidently and consistently moderate nationalist military hawks, whatever their nationality.

By definition nationalist military hawks prefer confrontation and clubbing in lieu of cooperation. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your raison d'etre and budget source, cooperation by clubbing is a fools mission. Unfortunately, fools are usually the last to recognize a foolish mission!

UPDATED 06/06/2016 CCTV, Chinese Admiral Sun [JianGuo] delivers speech on final day of Shangri-La Dialogue and Reuters, In pushback to U.S., China says 'has no fear of trouble' in South China Sea

Watching China actively engage with the world, a relatively recent late 19th century phenomenon is both clumsy and comical19. Not unlike a youngster first experiencing and eventually mastering the polycentric grade school playground.

The PLA, Navy's current constructive participation in our global commons, however limited, selective, and unicentric must be applauded, welcomed, and encouraged.

UPDATED 05/28/2016 CSPAN, U.S. Naval Academy Commencement Address, Secretary Ashton Carter and DefGov, Text Secretary of Defense Speech Remarks at U.S. Naval Academy Commencement As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, Annapolis, Maryland, May 27, 2016 
UPDATED 02/20/2016 USNI, WEST2016 (playlist 9-1 delete)


UPDATED 11/14/2015 Commonwealth, China and the U.S.: Can Conflict Be Avoided?

UPDATED 10/20/2015 IntellSquared, China and the U.S. Are Long-term Enemies 
John Mearsheimer et al. argue for deterministic offensive realism; Kevin Rudd et al. argue against.

UPDATED 12/26/2013 Reuters, Connected China, How-to Youtube Video List Five short videos introducing the multimedia presentation "Connected China"

Introduction Video (30sec)

UPDATED 05/31/2012 It is interesting and instructive to periodically revisit past projections on China—these from Niall Ferguson. He seems to argue, with some irony that the more China "downloads" (clarified and narrowed during question period) from the West the more problematic it becomes at least over a 20-year horizon?

It's likely that China's leadership is on the same uncertain but fascinating ride as everybody else—in China time, a 20-year ride is a short ride, even if perceived longer when measured by Western time.

UPDATED 02/22/2012 RAN Sea Power Conference 2012 (all sessions list), Rethinking Yesterday's Asia-Pacific Order:

UPDATED 09/13/2011 Andrew S. Erickson, at the Naval War College Museum pitching his latest book, Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles—a seemingly more serious, nuanced, and regionally focused Erickson—still showing the Chinese Antiship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)/Carrier cartoon animation.

The primary ASBM segments are at approximate elapsed time ranges of 27:00-31:00 (lecture) and 57:00-102:00 (Q&A).

UPDATED 09/05/2011 A nation can mistakenly perceive its military domination for a cosmopolitanism that detrimentally masks its parochialism. The inevitable decline differs little for a nation that believes it can eschew cosmopolitanism by directly enforcing its parochialism via military domination.

UPDATED 04/15/2011 Some interesting comments on the changes of (re)rising Asian power and cooperation for the benefit of the commons (public good).


UPDATED 12/26/2013 Reuters,Welcome to Connected China
UPDATED 03/07/2011 Indian Express, China challenges US dominance in Asia-Pacific.

UPDATED 01/09/2010 UCS, Exaggerated Claims About China’s Missiles. Post responds to Stokes and Blumenthal's WP, Why China's missiles should be our focus

UPDATED 11/19/2010 WSJ, China’s Military Ambitions: A Walking Tour. More China carrier killer hype based on a montage—wonder what inferences the author or China form from our network centric warfare montages? A more interesting caption for this article would be, "China sells missiles like America sells cars".

UPDATED 11/19/2010 ASE, China Testing Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM); U.S. Preparing Accordingly–Updated With Latest Analysis & Sources.

Assuming China has flown an integrated ASBM it should publish the missile's telemetry; alternatively DoD should publish the missile's telemetry. This interesting post is periodically updated with relevant information.

UPDATED 05/15/2010 Diplomat, China Set for Naval Hegemony.

A more circumspect, if still provocative Karaska continuing on the potential for China regional sea hegemony, including a few examples of China's admittedly clumsy-gangly-teenage-bully maritime behavior. Refreshingly, this time Kraska suggests cooperation and partnership as one possible outcome to a testosterone ladened teenage bully with the potential for provoking a punched in the nose (an outcome likely not lost on China's leadership). Fortunately, cooperating and partnering, is already underway and happily the United States is fast redirecting its focus and resources to catch-up, including cooperating with China! (OpenCRS, US-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress, July 2010 for a list of China-US contacts 1993-2009; WP, As U.S. officials begin visit to Beijing, relations are 'sound,' China says for latest non-military visit, September 06, 2010.) However, managing periodic playground bullying and fights is far from war and does not justify our current obscene and exorbitant defense budgets or ever more costly and exotic weapons systems. Moreover, Karaska's implicit inferences from North Korea's recent maritime behavior seem wildly speculative, wide of any mark or current evidence, and inconsistent with China's current behavior and military chain of command.

UPDATED 03/18/2010 USNI, China’s Navy: Hey, let’s not panic…. Nice ship and sub tally with some cautionary words (plus a map). Nations with advanced and well functioning civil society institutions may not fully appreciate how awkward a nation lacking those institutions can respond, particularly during times of shocks and transitions. It's delightful to observe China (at all levels) trying to play with its peers, notwithstanding the periodic bullying, awkward moments, and playground fights. The intense inclination of those residing behind the walls of Zhongnanhai to move China behind walls must at times be overwhelming?


UPDATED 09/18/2020 FAS, (The Other) Red Storm Rising: INDO-PACOM China Military Projection
UPDATED 06/10/2019 Reuters, Special Report: China's Furtive Underwater Nukes Test the Pentagon and Reuters, The China Challenge

...neither China nor America is asleep...a more mature relationship between lively long-seller and subdued short-seller is possible...

UPDATED 05/07/2019 Reuters, Exclusive: Analysts - Images Show Construction on China's Third - and Largest - Aircraft Carrier

UPDATED 12/01/2018 CSIS, China’s Power: Up for Debate; Keynote Address by Admiral Philip S. Davidson at the Third Annual ChinaPower Conference

UPDATED 09/10/2018 Brookings, Why China Isn’t Ahead Of The US Navy, Even With More Ships
and NYT, With Ships and Missiles, China Is Ready to Challenge U.S. Navy in Pacific and DoD, Focus On The Indo-Pacific

...assuming "challenge" means more than producing another military multi-media presentation or demanding America's warships leave the South China Sea or the dredging up of another airstrip onto an atoll, it is unclear how China benefits...Xi's turn toward authoritarianism and repression is unfortunate, unwise, and likely to complicate China's ability to overcome its significant economic, environmental, and governance challenges... is neither novel nor unexpected that authoritarians tend to make common cause with their ilk...

...confidently sailing across a nine-dash line in pursuit of open seas is not "challenging" for our navy in spite of other nation's order of battle...

UPDATED 12/05/2018 SupChina, China’s Third Aircraft Carrier Under Construction, To Launch In 2020? reportedly and significantly carrier 002 will have EMALS.
UPDATED 12/01/2017 WilsonCenter, Xi's Pax-Sino Vision
UPDATED 11/12/2017 ChinaDaily, Leadership of the CPC Central Committee

UPDATED 08/22/2017 CFR, The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Rare is the panel discussion, which if you left after the introductory remarks you'd have enough to think through for a year; stay till the end and spend the next decade thinking. This is one, which I'd entitle "Thucydides or Middle-Income Trap". (also, supChina, There is no Thucydides Trap; Arthur Waldron reviews Allison's "Destined for War" and AshCenter, What Does General Secretary Xi Jinping Dream About? and CUP, The Middle-Income Trap More Politics than Economics and [ADBI, Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: Innovate of Perish; WB, Lessons from Poland; LEI, Felipe 2012, Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?] )

UPDATED 10/26/2016 114th HASC, Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee Hearing, Glaser, Kraska, Erickson on South China Sea (September 2016)
UPDATED 10/01/2016 DoD, On USS Carl Vinson, Carter Highlights Asia-Pacific Rebalance and DoD, Carter, ASEAN Ministers Reaffirm Commitment to Regional Security and DoD, Carter Discusses Asia-Pacific Rebalance (Without Graphics) video and DoD, Carter Arrives in Hawaii, Briefs Reporters

The Secretary of Defense speaks on the "Asia-Pacific Rebalance", studiously disregarding regional blustery that can impede the peaceful rise across all the Asia-Pacific.

UPDATED 09/12/2016 ThomsonReutersTrust, China, Russia naval drill in S.China Sea to begin Monday
UPDATED 07/25/2016 WP, Obama aide visits China after South China Sea ruling and WH, Statement by NSC Spokesperson Ned Price on National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice’s Meetings in Beijing, China and Xinhua, Xi calls on China, U.S. to respect each other's core interests

UPDATED 06/30/2016 ABA Standing Committee on Law and National Security Breakfast Program Podcasts: JAG, Vice Admiral James W. Crawford, Freedom of Global Navigation Under Threat
and CCTV, China: Tribunal has no jurisdiction on South China Sea issue

UPDATED 06/21/2016 ATimes, Why US Navy isn’t in panic mode over China’s carrier-killer missiles and ATimes, China’s militarization of the South China Sea: Building a strategic strait? and WTimes, Ruling on South China Sea claim threatens to increase U.S., China tensions and CNAS, Annual Meeting, Admiral Richardson

Our Navy does complex and challenging change well, including sea swarms of "little blue men" and stand-off weaponry. Encouragingly, Admiral Richardson has established for himself a summer project of adding perspective to these complex and challenging changes.

UPDATED 06/07/2016 USNI, Beijing Accuses U.S. of ‘Negative Publicity Campaign’ Over South China Sea Issues
UPDATED 06/06/2016 NavyTimes, Top Navy officer visits carrier Stennis in contested South China Sea

UPDATED 06/04/2016 DoD Transcript, Remarks on "Asia-Pacific's Principled Security Network" at 2016 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, Singapore, June 04, 2016 and Joint Press Conference with Secretary Carter, Adm. Harris and Adm. Richardson at the Shangri-la Dialogue, Singapore June 04, 2016
UPDATED 05/31/2016 NYT, The South China Sea Dispute: Beijing’s View
UPDATED 05/24/2016 DoD, Defense Official Briefs Reporters on China Report District of Columbia, United States and DoD, News Transcript, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asia Abraham M. Denmark Holds a Press Briefing in the Pentagon Briefing Room

Nothing new (but see FAS, Pentagon Report And Chinese Nuclear Forces), except the Pentagon's choice to conduct a prudential public briefing of DoD's annual report on China.

The current East and South China Sea tension while unpleasant and annoying for our military is more of a nuisance than menace.

It's gratifying to know other nations' (big and small) leaders are publicly and privately expressing support for our President as he resolutely stands against the historically retrogressive principle that "might is right", "small are subjugate" and bullying prevails.

UPDATED 09/03/2015 WP, China showcases advanced ballistic missiles at military parade

Only in fiction (Ghost Fleet17, refers to the DF-21D variant as "Stonefish"), the minds of some (Naval War College) instructors, and a Washington Post article can the DF-21D variant, conventional "carrier killer" ballistic missile take out a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier (Bush) and a Virginia-class submarine (John Warner)15, without discussing Circular Error Probability or the dynamics and trade-offs of terminally maneuvering a ballistic reentry vehicle trajectory.

Hint, the technical details are significantly greater than "arm waving", asserting that the missile variant depends on a "network of systems" for its terminal guidance, or driving a TEL on a national parade grounds!

UPDATED 10/18/2014 ReutersTrust, U.S. and China look to manage differences, cooperate against threats

UPDATED 10/16/2014 BBC, Why is the US Navy practising for war with China?

The article's author can't really be serious in wondering why our navy is practicing war scenarios related to countering China's aggressive posturing in the South China Sea? Amazingly, the author is concerned that he may have penned an article offensive to our navy—our navy's pr personnel couldn't have penned a more accommodating article, complete with reference to China's infamous short range ballistic missile cum "carrier killer".

Maybe the author's next article will wonder why nations must include aggressive military posturing as part of their delicate diplomatic dancing?

Who gives a shit if China decorates every rock in the South China Sea with a giant paper dragon—how does that confer ownership any more than if America were to decorate each rock with a giant eagle?

UPDATED 06/06/2014 FAS, Chinese Nuclear Missile Upgrade Near Dalian
Kristensen conjectures four recently imaged land pads near Dalian may be for the newly developing DF-21D transport erector launchers (TELs).  
UPDATED 04/22/2014 Xinhua, Regional [14th Western Pacific ] naval symposium opens in [ Qingdoa] China Incremental progress on at sea common communication methods and signals (Reuters).

UPDATED 02/11/2014 ThomsonReuters, Pentagon weapons buyer sees tough choices from tight budgets and Reuters, China, Taiwan agree to open offices after historic talks

UPDATED 01/20/2014 WT, Hypersonic arms race: China tests high-speed missile to beat U.S. defenses

Recently, "hypersonic" warhead tests has initiated another recycling of the "carrier killer" hype. Fortunately, much of the hype can be quickly dismissed based on conflating cruise and ballistic missile airframe or telemetry terminology. Any residual hype is devoid of meaningful specifics and uses a "magic wand" to slow and maneuver a ballistic reentry vehicle. Finally and fatally, the hype typically supposes an adversary passively ignores any hostile ballistic trajectory.

Worse, an adversary tracks the ballistic boost phase but then fails to distinguish it as a "conventional ballistic carrier killer" and responds with a nuclear ballistic trajectory! Such are the disastrous hazards of conflating conventional cruise and ballistic missile airframe or telemetry.

Those who've ridden a bicycle will appreciate the challenges associated with deploying an air breathing "hypersonic" cruise missile—leg power fails to overcomes air resistance, notwithstanding design time in the wind tunnel or pedaling effort, altitude and practice.

UPDATED 12/26/2013 Reuters, Connected China

Nice intra-linked multimedia overview of China based on currently published information. Nothing will surprise informed China watchers (e.g. China's developing submarine fleet or its propensity to extol what it considers "good" and hide that which it considers "bad").

Additionally, antisubmarine warfare and countermeasures do not focus exclusively or even primarily on the acoustic properties of current diesel technology (German or others) used in some newer Chinese submarines.
UPDATED 11/12/2013 NYT, A Game of Shark (China) And Minnow (Philippines) Includes illustrations and beautiful images of a couple of small South Pacific islands.

UPDATED 05/08/2013 WashBeacon, Keeping an Eye on China, CNO: Vigilant but not worried by Chinese naval buildup

A vigilant and clear-eyed CNO pursues path of continuously calling out China on demonstrable cooperative intent while pursuing same.

UPDATED 03/13/2013 Diplomat, China’s Military Development, Beyond the Numbers Erickson et al. continue refining their increasingly subtle, sophisticated and sourced analysis of China's rise—delightful reading.

UPDATED 09/04/2012 VOA, Will South China Sea Disputes Lead to War? 

Firstly, China Is Not a superpower it's a developing power and knows it. Secondly, all bullies think they own, rule and run an entire playground until they're ignored or provoke a punch in their nose. Thirdly, bullies learn to play nice when they're ignored (i.e. refuse to sign natural resource leases or recognize EEZ, or trade, or recognize midnight landings and radar stations build on rocks etc.) or provoke a punch in their nose.

A high probability of periodic playground fighting or provoking a punch in their nose is not “war” or justification for our bloated military budget nor is an arms race with China necessary to achieve beneficial and desirable South and East China Sea outcomes.

Our nation must immediately ratify the Law of the Sea Convention and continue to constructively coordinate adherence with the same by all nations, including China.

It will also be helpful if nations quit trying to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to dealing with China.

UPDATED 09/02/2012 Diplomat, China’s Real Blue Water Navy  An interesting and thoughtful discussion of several useful China PLAN indicators, by Erickson et al.

UPDATED 08/30/2012 Reuters, Analysis: China's aircraft carrier: in name only
UPDATED 08/18/2012 NWC, Between Peace And The Air-Sea Battle, A War At Sea Strategy

An interesting multilateral collaborative strategy—a better caption might be, "A Peaceful Playground Patrolling Strategy".

The authors acknowledge some aspects of their proposed strategy require war gaming—hopefully those conducting the war games will recruit the participation of many first grade teachers with significant experience patrolling playgrounds.

UPDATED 08/10/2012 Time, AirSea Battle: The Military-Industrial Complex’s Self-Serving Fantasy and ChinaSecurity, Big-War Thinking in a Small-War Era The Rise of the AirSea Battle Concept
UPDATED 08/03/2012 WP, U.S. model for a future war fans tensions with China and inside Pentagon

These military and think-tank "initiatives" are de rigueur, costly, amusing and mostly ignored by the initiated. The uninitiated (e.g. many in Congress) can be jarred or overly impressed and awed as briefers preface their tailored pitches with warnings of secrecy worthy of G. Gordon Liddy, before closing with an implicit or explicit defense of the oversized and obscene budgets.

Of course it doesn't hurt that the oversized and obscene budgets translate into high wage jobs in many congressional districts where representatives freely and frequently deploy the secrecy to avoid defending these spending decisions.

When you're aim is to "put enough uncertainty in the minds of Chinese military planners that they would not want to take us on" both your "initiatives" and spending are unbounded! Stated differently, how will our military planners know when they've put enough uncertainty in the minds of the Chinese planners—they won't until after a conflict begins!

The only thing jarring about Andrew Marshall's undisclosed and no doubt "secret" or "top secret" 200 "initiatives" is that there are only 200, but then even an overly impressed and awed Congress must have budgetary limits!

UPDATED 07/26/2012 WT, Inside the Ring: Air Force Chief on air-sea battle Sometimes doing nothing for a period of time is the best response, albeit a difficult and atypical response.

UPDATED 07/22/2012 Xinhua Photos, Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov

Some pictures of the old aircraft carrier that China is refurbishing—good for some training, experience and pride—propaganda, hype and hysteria for the uninformed.

UPDATED 07/22/2012 Reuters, China to formally garrison disputed South China Sea

UPDATED 04/07/2012 USCC, Indigenous Weapons Development in China’s Military Modernization Apr 2012 Draft

This report is reformatted and republished data that has been well known—open source military and intelligence data often circulate and republish for years as each constituency processes the same data. The nature of these data are parsimonious where insignificant changes are often accompanied by an entire regurgitation of known data. This can make it difficult to understand these changes within a national security and threat context, particularly for a typical citizen trying to stay responsibly informed.

For example our intelligence may discover that a recent cyber-attack (China originated) downloaded research documents related to advanced accelerometers (related to missile location and accuracy). These new data may then appear, often in oblique terms in another regurgitation of a report on China's well known "carrier killer" ballistic missile development.

It can leave all but the tenacious expert or detailed reader wondering why these data are being regurgitated and republished for the umpteenth time!? Of course reading these regurgitated and recirculated reports over a period of several years can quickly overwhelm any responsible citizen.

A standard report format with built-in change revision tracking mechanism would be helpful for all official or quasi-official reporting on national security or threat data issues.

Curiously, the above report does not mention China's progress on development and deployment of a GPS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems, GNSS; also, Compass-BeiDou) and the refurbishment of an old aircraft carrier, Kuznetsov-Varyag purchased from Russia.

UPDATED 02/16/2012 CRS, China Naval Modernization RL33153 dated February 2012 (Courtesy of FAS Secrecy Blog)

A quick summary of open source issues and concerns related to China's PLAN decade and a half modernization.

Fortunately, the prior "carrier killer" hype has significantly subsided—or paraphrasing a former CNO, what can go through the bottom of a ship is of more interest than what can go through its top.

Nice to read an express acknowledgement that in modern naval warfare qualitative predominates quantitative factors--an observation often lost on the uninformed or manipulated by the informed seeking to misinform the uniformed:
"...In recent years, the warfighting capabilities of navies have derived increasingly from the sophistication of their internal electronics and software. This factor can vary greatly from one navy to the next, and often cannot be easily assessed by outside observation. As the importance of internal electronics and software has grown, the idea of comparing the warfighting capabilities of navies principally on the basis of easily observed factors such as ship numbers and tonnages has become increasingly less valid, and today is highly problematic...."--China Naval Modernization--
Moreover, there are simply no short-cuts or substitutes for the many years of practice and experience required to optimally operate a platform's hardware and software given an expected warfare scenario. Now consider that in modern naval warfare your platform is optimally operating as part of a complex dynamic multinodal mesh!

UPDATED 01/15/2012 CNAS, Cooperation from Strength. The United States, China and the South China Sea (pdf)  Provides a cursory description of the South China Sea boundary and consequent resource disputes and disputants.

Cooperation from Strength is an aphorism for the expenditures on an expansive naval fleet to perpetuate our unilateral global police power.  An aphorism that is more nonsensical and discouraging of cooperation than "mistress marriage maintenance".

Cooperation from Strength  simply complains that China uses economic coercion on the South China Sea disputants and others; opportunistically substitutes its domestic law for international law; increased its expenditures on military development; and free rides on our heretofore unilateral provision of global police power (the first three complaints are tactics not unfamiliar to our nation and the last is exactly what  Cooperation from Strength seeks to perpetuate!).

Not sure how the above complaints justify the expenditures on an expansive naval fleet to perpetuate our unilateral global police power? The complaints seem more supportive of the need to develop a multilateral cooperative framework.

UPDATED 01/13/2012 IHS Janes, Analysis: US' Asia-Pacific strategy provokes mixed response from China

Discusses the recently published "Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (pdf)".

UPDATED 12/15/2011 NDU, Chinese Navy: The PLA Navy’s Antiaccess Role in a TaiwanContingency

Article by Michael McDevitt published in National Defense University's, The Chinese Navy (chapter 8) that moves the China AntiAccess (A2/AD)13 challenge away from "arm-waving and shocked amazement" to "more difficult to surmount than the antiaccess capabilities it faced during the Cold War14 from the [former] Soviet Union".

Refreshingly, in addition to placing the AntiAccess strategy in a historical context the article lightly anchors it to a basic, if evolving military doctrine.
"If the PLA can master and field this weapons system, it will be able to present as serious a challenge to the U.S. Navy as the one presented by Soviet Backfire-launched cruise missiles before the introduction of the Aegis radar system. Aside from the technical challenge associated with missile warhead design, the command and control problem of determining an accurate location of an aircraft carrier, getting that information to a missile firing unit in a timely fashion, and translating positional information into a guidance solution for the missile which has to include missile time of flight before the target ship moves beyond the terminal seeker’s window—are also issues.[reference to footnote 48 omitted.] The central point is, however, that these all appear to be solvable problems. In this author’s judgment, this capability, assuming that it is eventually successfully fielded, when combined with the PLAN’s robust submarine force, presents the U.S. Navy with an operational challenge that is actually more difficult to surmount than the antiaccess capabilities it faced during the Cold War from the Soviet Union."--China Navy--
China is not the first nation to investigate conventional ballistic missile maneuverability or have every junk scored as a potential threat by its putative adversaries.

Stated differently, military doctrine still prefers professionalism, experience, quality and deployability over hyperbole and simulations.

UPDATED 11/24/2011  Proceedings, Drawing Lines at Sea and Diplomat, Yes, China Could Have a Global Navy

UPDATED 11/07/2011 MarketWatch, The Global Submarine Market 2011-2021 

The global submarine market is expected to increase by a CAGR of 1.22% during the ten year period.
A total of 154 submarines are to be procured over the next decade, for an estimated cost of US $186.3 billion. The United States and Asian States accounting for 70.3% percent of the estimated market or 46.7% and  23.6%, respectively.

Fortunately, as budget realities associated with building and maintaining credible submarine fleets take hold the eventual size and dollar value of the forecasted market will likely decrease. 

UPDATED 10/21/2011 Diplomat, China’s Overhyped Sub Threat

UPDATED 10/07/2011 A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the struggle for mastery in Asia

A well written and sourced introduction to the current state of the ongoing fascinating and intellectually challenging China-U.S debate—a debate with a gradient extending from “engage-appease” through “constrain-contain”.

Friedberg seems to prefer a gradient point nearer assertive engagement—maintain a qualitative distrustful engagement of China while maintaining an undefined (i.e. no quantitative measures specified) military superiority.11

Using a series of desultory statements (primarily chapters 10 and 11) Friedberg12 seems to conclude that an undemocratic China cannot be trusted; the Chinese people are powerless, and cannot be trusted to alter the authoritarian CCP; and a preponderance of our uninformed citizens; policymakers; China scholars; China-hands; and China-watchers; are too busy engaging China to understand or realize its stealthy and coercive designs.

Assuming Friedberg's qualitative generalized conclusions are accurate--after a costly decade-plus of hubris and failure to forcefully impose democratic civil society structures on authoritarian nations who will fault those willing to explore alternative approaches? 

Today, authoritarian regimes seem to fall like dominoes in months with little or no application of external force, or usage of major weapons systems, and sometimes notwithstanding belated rhetorical support and encouragement!

Wonder how many Chinese citizens are aware that authoritarian regimes are falling like dominoes , notwithstanding the censorship efforts of the CCP?

UPDATED 09/03/2011 Project 204910, Asian Alliances in the 21st Century (pdf; includes forecast of regional submarines)   As I read this breathless budget boosting (or busting depending on your perspective) broadcast I was reminded of a quote from Hu Angang's recent book China 2020: A New Type of Superpower.

"To see ourselves as others see us is a rare and valuable gift, without a doubt. But in international relations what is still rarer and far more useful is to see others as they see themselves."--Hu Angang, China 2020 quoting Jacques Barzun--

Instead of condescendingly focusing on China's alleged ungrateful contention for the commons and lobbying to increase our $3 billion dollar Virginia-class submarine inventory it might be more useful and productive to focus on Building the 21st Century U.S.-China Cooperation.

With some luck, a lot of consensus building, and leadership China will begin to carry some of the substantial burden for preserving and protecting the commons9. No mean feat for a nation that hasn't even experienced its first "capitalist's" economic down-turn.

See Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China for DoD's latest annual summary to Congress. The fact that China has generally referred to this report as "cock and bull" is a strong indicator that our DoD has not seen China as China sees itself--perhaps a general challenge for our nations?

UPDATED 07/16/2011 BaltimoreSun, Wrong course for Navy weapons research and BaltimoreSun, We can't afford a naval arms race. Wonder what the performance-vulnerability-cost trade-offs (e.g. loads, speed, and CEP etc.) are for a mach 10-12 reentry vehicle(s) slowing for the purpose of executing a terminal course correction or maneuver...and for a counter measure projectile? Certainly basic and applied research can continue in the absence of costly major weapons systems development.

UPDATED 07/16/2011 Aviation Week, China Details Anti-ship Missile Plans.

UPDATED 07/13/2011 Aviation Week, China: Anti-Ship Missile Still In Development.

UPDATED 07/11/2011 CTV, China says U.S. spends too much money on military. Chen Bingde is quoted as saying the DF-21D variant ("carrier killer") is not operational, yet.

UPDATED 06/03/2011 AFPS, U.S. Will Maintain, Improve Engagement in Asia, Gates Says and DoD, [SecDef June 04 speech at] International Institute for Security Studies (Shangri-La Dialogue).

"Our engagement in Asia has been guided by a set of enduring principles that have fostered the economic growth and stability of the region. I spoke about these principles last year, but I think it is worth reiterating our commitment to them once more today:

(1) Free and open commerce;
(2) A just international order that emphasizes rights and responsibilities of nations and fidelity to the rule of law;
(3) Open access by all to the global commons of sea, air, space, and now, cyberspace; and
(4) The principle of resolving conflict without the use of force."--SecDef, June 04, 2011 (local)

...and continually challenge China to do the same, notwithstanding periodic stalls and setbacks.

UPDATED 05/16/2011 CTV (AP), U.S. Navy drones: Coming to a carrier near China? and Diplomat, US Drones vs China. United States announces usage of carrier based drones as part of a developing Asia stand-off strategy.

UPDATED 05/16/2011 NDU INSS, The New Security Environment – Implications for American Security in the Asia Pacific Region. A paper from the recent National Defense University 2011 Pacific symposium. On May 18, 2011 China's PLA Chief of the General Staff, Chen Bingde is scheduled to speak at the NDU.

UPDATED 02/21/2011 Reuters, U.S. to boost naval forces as China develops carrier: admiral.

UPDATED 02/15/2011 AJC, US admiral: Carrier killer won't stop US Navy.

...the Navy does not see the much-feared weapon [DF-21D aka "carrier killer"] as creating any insurmountable vulnerability for the U.S. carriers—the Navy's crown jewels."--AP quoting Vice Admiral Scott van Buskirk, commander of the U.S. 7th Fleet--

 Not sure who understands China's DF-21D with "much fear" or our navy's aircraft carrier as a crown jewel? The caption for the TEL and missile photo included in the article should be viewed with some skepticism as to missile variant, DF-21C versus DF-21D?

UPDATED 01/12/2011 DefPro, China’s anti-ship ballistic missile operational.

"Dorsett [Naval Operations for Information Dominance, N2/N6] confirmed that the DF-21D had reached initial combat capability and confirmed it has been tested over land, but that the US had not observed an over-water test. He called the missile ‘competent’ and ‘capable’." --DefPro--

UPDATED 01/09/2011 NYT, U.S. Will Counter Chinese Arms Buildup.

It will be helpful if the major powers begin focusing on development and application of cooperative models to eventually replace conflict models. Nations fool only themselves with recurring threats of sustained cycles of competitive armed conflict—it's the language of fear and misunderstanding. Instead of our leaders challenging or encouraging China to accumulate or amass weaponry let them challenge and encourage the reduction of our own stockpile of weaponry. Instead of our leaders talking about countering "carrier killers" let them talk about deploying a cooperative carrier—an aircraft carrier cooperatively developed, operated, and maintained by China, Britain, Russia, and United States. The crews can rotate through three months of deployment; six months of joint education and training; and three months of rest and relaxation.

UPDATED 01/06/2011 NYT, China’s Push to Modernize Military Is Bearing Fruit and Asia Sentinel, Running Silent, Running Deep Around Taiwan. Fortunately, some articles seem to be switching from the alarmist's voice—using a more balanced analyst's voice.

UPDATED 12/30/2010 BCJIA, Challenging US Command of the Commons: Evolving Chinese defense technologies as a threat to American hegemony? (Spring 2010) Article cites Project 2049's China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability: the anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and beyond (September 14, 2009) for the proposition that ASBM initial capability will be available in 2010:

"...In contrast, ASBMs have the potential to destroy US carriers before they even enter the theater of operations around Taiwan – a potential “game-changer” in a military conflict. Based on a survey of Chinese technical and doctrinal publications, a number of US non-profit and government institutions claim that China has had significant success in its pursuit of an ASBM capacity. Although there has been no official acknowledgment by Chinese authorities, nor any known test of ASBM assets, an initial capacity is estimated to be available in 2010...."--Challenging US Command of the Commons, footnotes omitted--

UPDATED 12/30/2010 Popular Mechanics, What a War Between China and the United States Would Look Like. A Kraska-lite U.S.-China war speculation article—the article actually states:

"...Chances are that a war between China and the United States will not happen in 2015, or at any other time."

Guess it's a thought exercise?
UPDATED 12/30/2010 China SignPost, China Deploys World’s First Long-Range, Land-Based ‘Carrier Killer’: DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Reaches “Initial Operational Capability” (IOC). Post makes the assertion in exhibit 6:

"May:2010: CASIC 4th Dept. Deputy Director says DF-21D can hit "slow-moving targets" with a CEP of dozens of meters"

This likely refers to a statement attributed to Deputy Commander Wang Genbin, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) Fourth Academy’s Fourth Design Department (English Translation)?:

"...China's solid missile from scratch, from small to large development team is also, by the team, "bombs and one satellite" spirit of the traditional spirit of space, developed missiles of China's first generation of solid, then 20 years from 1988 to the present time, the state invested only 3.0 billion development costs, has developed east on the 21st A, B, C, D four models, complete from the nuclear to both nuclear and conventional attack fixed targets to attack slow moving target changes, the precision CEP realized tens of meters from a few hundred meters and then to progress to truly create a model series, to meet the Second Artillery Corps in the new era, "responsible for deterrence against China's use of nuclear weapons, conducting nuclear counterattacks and precision strikes with conventional missiles." made important contributions to the country. The team win without pride, by defeat, hard work, walking is a better and more economical for development.--English translation--

Also refer to FAS Strategic Security Blog, Missile Mystery in Beijing (Oct 05, 2009)
UPDATED 12/28/2010 Diplomat, China’s Military Surprises. Commander, United States Pacific Fleet Command Admiral Robert F. Willard seems to assert that China believes (not that he or our navy judges) its "carrier killer" has achieved initial operating capabilities (IOC)8.

The admiral goes on to say that no over-water test of the entire system has been observed and that additional years of testing will be required. At a minimum IOC implies getting a missile to an aircraft carrier within some circular error of probability (CEP)8.

It can be an equivalent test—for example drive a simulated aircraft carrier around in the desert and measure how close your "carrier killer" missile comes to hitting the "aircraft carrier" (i.e CEP).

We would detect the test whether over water or sand; probably intercept the telemetry; and with some luck measure the CEP. It's unnecessary and unhelpful for our military leaders (or others) to talk about potential threats cryptically, tangentially, or as if they are UFOs.

UPDATED 12/26/2010 WP, Military strength is eluding China by John Pomfret. It is will be helpful to continually challenge any tendency to designate nations as "threats" then use such designation as justification for perpetuating confrontation, conflict, and containment over cooperation.

UPDATED 12/03/2010 Economist, The fourth modernisation.

UPDATED 10/19/2010 WT, LYONS: Countering China's aggression: Communist dictatorship presents trouble in Asia and abroad

Unsurprisingly the "Cold War" admiral thinks we're not doing enough to deter or counter (how about balance?) the Chinese aggression.

"Our message should be that the world's leading democracy will not be intimidated or bullied by another communist threat. In addition to remaining militarily superior, the United States also can begin to organize multinational political and economic pressures that could help accelerate China's evolution from communism. We led a similar campaign in the not-too-distant past."

Wonder what the admiral calls RIMPAC 2010? Of course it would be a gross mistake to treat China as Russia or the former Soviet Union or even communist. The admiral does raise the interesting question of how any future Chinese president, say 57 year-old Xi Jinping would go about evolving China's authoritarian leadership? If only it were as easy and simple as driving the United States Third Fleet into the Yellow Sea or South China Sea—China's leadership would likely call the Third Fleet itself! Unfortunately, as the below post (The "China Threat" Isn't Military) generally notes such efforts are only likely to recall memories of the first Anglo-Chinese Opium War7. Shortly after that conflict China's Lin Zexu (林则徐) and Wei Yuan (魏源) decided to enhance China's navy and coastal defenses, including denial of access defensive measures (for more details refer to China's Self-Strengthening Movement)

UPDATED 10/19/2010 DefPro, The "China Threat" Isn't Military Some tersely interesting words on the "China Threat—a lot to ponder in this short post.

UPDATED 08/17/2010 DefenseLink, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010 (5M pdf)

"China is developing an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) based on a variant of the CSS-5 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). The missile has a range in excess of 1,500 km, is armed with a maneuverable warhead, and when integrated with appropriate command and control systems, is intended to provide the PLA the capability to attack ships, including aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific Ocean....The PLA is acquiring conventional MRBMs to increase the range at which it can conduct precision strikes against land targets and naval ships, including aircraft carriers, operating far from China’s shores out to the first island chain."--DoD 2010--

There is nothing new or shocking on the “carrier killer”; no mention of terminal guidance; elsewhere, the report states that OTH radar is being developed and can be coupled with satellite imagery. Total 2009 PLA military spending is estimated at ≅$140+ billion dollars on a budget of ≅$70+ billion dollars. (do all nation''s defense components overrun their proposed budget by 100%?) The report includes a nice "org-chart" of China''s military structure. Unfortunately, DoD persists in its opaque ways (submitting an opaque annex with the 2010 report) while expressing concern over China''s lack of transparency.

UPDATED 08/11/2010 DefPro, China''s New "Carrier-Killing" Missile Is Overrated. Article by Loren B. Thompson:

"Frankly, the U.S. Navy has so many options for negating Chinese antiship capabilities that I can only conclude the alarmists aren''t conversant with U.S. military preparations to be so worried about the nascent Dong Feng."

UPDATED 07/08/2010 Time, U.S. Missiles Deployed Near China Send a Message and Asia Times, China flexes its naval muscle.

Two good articles on the deteriorating military cooperation between China and United States—both articles could be titled “Dangerous Games Adult Children Play”.

It seems useful to note that the much hyped China DF-21 or DF-21A, the so called ballistic missile cum conventional "carrier killer", was not deployed or demonstrated. Left alone, the male military leadership5 of both nations will tend toward what they''ve learned best; taunt, threaten, and intimidate—male children in America learn this behavior early.

The childhood game is called "King of the Hill". The game doesn''t change when the kids become adults or admirals, just the location (i.e. from the schoolyard playground becomes to the South China and Yellow Seas) and costs.

Learning the childhood game "King of the Hill" is harmful by itself, but the adult logic our male military leaders (and some non-military leaders) assign to playing the childhood game as an adult is even more harmful.

Our adult male military leaders asserts it’s necessary to play the childhood game "King of the Hill" so we don’t have to really fight, really (this curious and bizarre logic will always lead to fighting, exactly the opposite of their stated assertion)!

 Let’s try replacing both nations’ military leadership with female military leadership. American girls show no inclination or interest in playing the childhood game "King of the Hill" and I''ll bet China''s girls don''t either. 

As always resolving one problem creates another—what will our female admirals do with all those lonely male admirals? Maybe they can fund the annual "King of the Hill" games for all our male admirals, minus the weapon systems.

UPDATED 03/30/2010 USNI, ''Get Off the Fainting Couch''. Craig Hooper and Christopher Albon argue that the "carrier killer" hype has been harmful and counterproductive. The hype legitimizes a non-operational missile and distracts from constructive dialogue with China and other regional nations. Dialogue aimed at highlighting how destabilizing such a missile would be for the region should it ever become operational.

UPDATED 03/30/2010 Wired, China Testing Ballistic Missile 'Carrier-Killer'. Article by Andrew Erickson includes some useful links but nothing new.

UPDATED 03/28/2010 SASC, Hearing on U.S. Pacific Command.... Includes a useful summary of the U.S. Navy Pacific Command Open Posture by Admiral Robert F. Willard. Of particular interest is China's Southeast Asia playground etiquette...:
Atlantic, Cyber Warriors. Nice article by James Fallows—it''s easy to overlook that much can be learned from those you do not fear.

UPDATED 03/17/2010 Atlantic, Cyber Warriors. Nice article by James Fallows—it''s easy to overlook that much can be learned from those you do not fear.

UPDATED 03/01/2010 CSBA, Why AirSea Battle? (pdf). Another shot (weak pun) at the China AntiShip Ballistic Missile (ASBM) story—this one is a slightly more circumspect version of Kraska''s Story within the context of some interesting China-Iran Anti-Access/Area-Denial conjecture. The author, Andrew F. Krepinevich, appears to cite the now familiar Yang and Erickson article for the proposition that the ASBM exists:

"...Perhaps the most notable Chinese addition is the anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).39" @ page 18 [footnote 39 is to Yang and Erickson]

But then later more accurately states:

"...To be sure, even if the PRC has a capable ASBM, a targeting system is still required to enable the [≈ mach 10+] reentry vehicle to hone in on its [highly mobile and heavily defended] target. Fielding the ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] component for its ASBM force represents a challenging task for the PLA...." @ page 19 [added to original text]

This type of general conjecture is routine and near ubiquitous within our defense industry, military components, and intelligence sectors seeking to understand and forecast the next "threat and enemy" (eventually we''ll figure out that needing a "threat and enemy" is the threat and enemy). But, care must be taken when reading these general conjecture articles to ensure that repetitive general conjecture is not mistaken for specific and complete evidence. Otherwise the repetitive general conjecture becomes the a "threat and enemy".

UPDATED 02/10/2010 UPI, China says no hegemonic intention. Statements of national intentions are of course important and necessary, but insufficient without the accompanying transparent and confirming participation and cooperation for international growth and stability. It''s no longer desirable or feasible for an authoritarian nation, particularly the size of China, to shout non-hegemonic intentions from behind walls. China’s authoritarian communist party must eliminate walls, move with all diligent speed toward a civil society, and begin shouldering a portion of the heavy burden of ensuring global stability and growth.

UPDATED 02/20/2010 The Diplomat, Why China’s Naval Rise Could Help the World

"There's much more reason to be positive...I do think China wants to fit into the ''global commons.'' We just have to be careful [sic: too?] make sure they see we are trying to treat them as equals."--Diplomat quoting Eric Wertheim, US naval analyst and author of Combat Fleets of the World--

UPDATED 02/10/2010 ExpressIndia, China''s anti-ship missile not a threat: Navy chief.

Interesting comments from India''sAdmiral Nirmal Verma on the use of a ballistic anti-ship missile:

"...Some event [sic] talk about carrying out land-based missile attacks against an aircraft carrier. We must weigh this against the difficulties of targeting a mobile target out at sea,... ...Should an adversary manage to evade a plethora of air, surface and sub-surface escorts and be capable of hitting a carrier, sinking it or putting a carrier out of action is by no means easy"--Express India quoting Admiral Verma--

UPDATED 01/11/2010 WSJ OpEd, The Taiwan Arms-Sales Equation.
"Cross-strait relations won''t progress peacefully unless Taipei can defend itself from a Chinese attack."

UPDATED 12/31/2009 UPI, China''s navy mulls push into Arabian Sea.

UPDATED 01/02/2010 UPI, China has no plans for African Navy base.

Wikimapia Aerial Map, CoCo Island, Burma
Wikimapia Aerial Map, Gwadar, Pakistan

UPDATED 05/25/2011 Dawn, ‘China agrees to run Gwadar port’
Wikimapia Aerial Map, Hambantota, Sri Lanka


1. Kraska is careful to state that the views expressed in his article do not represent or reflect official U.S. Navy or Department of Defense policy. But, then goes on to indulge speculation, unproven facts, undocumented data, and liberal assumptions uncharacteristic of a navy, Law of the Sea specialist.

2. UPDATED 01/17/2010 Kraska refers to the DF-21 which has an open-source circular error of probability estimated range of 300-400 meters (see FAS, DF-21 / CSS-5 and SinoDefense, DongFeng 21 (CSS-5) Medium-Range Ballistic Missile, and John Lewis and Hua Di, China''s Ballistic Missile Programs, International Security, Fall 1992 Vol. 17, No. 2, 3M pdf and Wikipedia, Ballistic Missiles, China and en.interpretation of Chinese blog providing the early speculation on a DF-21 antiship variant).
It's unclear whether terminal course correction of a fast moving reentry vehicle is even feasible. And if feasible whether it''s practical for use against a highly mobile and defended target like an aircraft carrier. Not to mention the nuclear retaliatory risks inherent in using a ballistic weapon for conventional tactical purposes. Distinguish the rare anti-ship ballistic missile from the common anti-ship cruise missile (e.g. Tomahawk, Sizzler, Sunburn, Club etc.)

UPDATED 03/06/2014 Defending The Fleet From China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile: Naval Deception’s Roles In Sea-Based Missile Defense (old research)

3. It’s likely the waters within the first string of pearls are more “acoustically wired” and monitored than a Cold War Soviet embassy.

4. It should be noted that our military officers below the level of flag (admiral) generally are not expected to think in the diplomatic terms of balancing cooperation with confrontation. However, Kraska seems to mock cooperation and partnership and assume confrontation—fortunately Kraska is not a navy flag officer.

5. Of course, some of our military and non-military leadership is moving away from past models and non-cooperative behavior. They must be open, transparent, and vocal on the need to swiftly replace obsolete models and behavior with updated learning and models. The transition will be daunting since there are currently fewer vested interests in cooperation than non-cooperation. We must begin holding our military and non-military leaderships accountable for the missed "opportunity costs" that results when they substitute taunting, threatening, and intimidation for cooperation.

6. Lost in recovery of post—related to a update between September and October 2010.

7. Britain was then the world's narcotrafficker of the world and was seeking to preserve existing markets and open new ones. A large number of Chinese were suffering from opium addiction and China sought to prevent the opium from entering its country (refer to Opium Wars for additional information). It's instructive of historical interpretation to note that China Goes to Sea emphasizes the Qing leaders' balance of payment concerns (opium was paid for with China's silver) that was impeding their ability to wage war in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region(@pg 295). Not mentioning eliminating the scourge of opium addiction. Of course both concerns are interrelated and it's a matter of emphasis.

8. UPDATED 12/28/2010 Saying you have a missile without a CEP is like saying you have an aircraft carrier without planes, crew, or adequate steerage. Erickson et al. directly raises the concept of FOC (Full Operational Capability)—fundamentally the difference between missile IOC and FOC concepts is an improved CEP. It's of course not unknown for nations (including ours) to announce IOC of a missile with a totally useless or undefined CEP and then work (or waste resources) to improve or define the CEP before declaring FOC (particularly when budgets are tight and the weapon system is politically unpopular). Rarely, do such “political tactics” dupe our very capable naval intelligence officers or admirals—in fact they may even accommodate (or exploit) such tactics because it diverts (or justifies) scarce resources to a doomed and useless (desired) endeavor. Admiral Willard et al. must be applauded for raising these important issues for our open, transparent, reciprocal, dispassionate, and meaningful discussion.

9. The fascinating and durable Shanghai Communiqué is an early example of U.S.-China agreeing to cooperate for the benefit of the global commons.

10. UPDATED 09/09/2011 Speculating about the year 2049 enables reference to Deng's 1992 speech wherein he urged China to pursue the "basic line" (socialism with reform, and opening appended)  without vacillation for 100 years.  If the "basic line" is measured from the CCP's founding in 1949 plus 100 years the result is 2049.

Even if the 2049 speculation is amiss the speech is useful reading for those wanting to understand a changing China.

11. There is a set of bizarre logic routinely asserted by some persons in positions of leadership of predominantly aggressive, and assertive nations. The logic imagines all efforts aimed at ameliorating the persistent or ephemeral and real or imagined fears, phobias, or superstitions of another nation's leaders somehow demonstrates a weakness that invites an exploitative counter-aggression.

These persons do not need access to major weapon systems or positions of leadership; they need access to therapy and removal from all positions of leadership while they undergo therapy.

12. Friedberg's interest linkages include:

Defense Policy Board (DPB) Member 2007; Alexander Hamilton Society Director 2011; Long Term Strategy Group Member 2011; Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) Lecturer and former Graduate Professor of Core CMSI Professors 2011 (e.g. Andrew Erickson); and Henry Kissinger Scholar at the Library of Congress (Henry Kissinger is a 2011 DPB Member).

UPDATED 10/18/2011 Also, WP, Interview with Aaron Friedberg: Is China going to displace the U.S.? for Friedberg's nonconservative credentials and current connect with the Mitt Romney campaign.

Interest linkages can produce tremendous insights and novel thinking on extraordinarily challenging issues (e.g. U.S-China relationship); or interest linkages can produce mutually reinforcing group-think orthodoxy, propaganda, and blow-back.

13. McDevitt differentiates between the America terminology of AntiAccess and Area Denial and Chinese terminology of defensive strategy (broadly and meaninglessly defined as threats to national interests), but continues the custom of referring to A2/AD generically as AntiAccess.

14. Those wanting a refresher of "Cold War" history may find John Gaddis's The Cold War helpful.

15. The newly commissioned USS John Warner (SSN-785) is currently under a restrictive operations directive because of unauthorized welding on high pressure water reactor elbow joints, a significantly greater threat to submarine operations than a "carrier killer" conventional ballistic missile.

16. Lobbing convention warheads on ballistic reentry vehicle trajectories invites confusion and a mistaken nuclear retaliatory response, which is a great reason to eschew commingling them.

17. A nonfictional "ghost fleet" exists in Mallows Bay on the Potomac River, south of Washington, D.C., a historical recreational reminder of war's remnants:

18. Current accounts of the U.S.-China military relationship must be closely scrutinized with transparently known facts. It's not at all unusual for accounts to "shout" phrases like "China is building a Second Aircraft Carrier" (e.g. Time, China Is Building a Second Aircraft Carrier).

Well, no China hasn't built a first aircraft carrier; it has refurbished a scrapped Russian carrier!

19. UPDATED 06/07/2016 The China Lawyers Association has issued a statement that is not unlike a toddler seeing the South and East China Sea and saying, "Mine", (我的) which intended as both an assertion and question: All China Lawyers Association issues statement on South China Sea arbitration initiated by the Philippines.

Whereupon, the asserting and questioning toddler will likely hear the frustratingly familiar response, "no, you must share"!